What's Shaping the Second Half of 2026: Our H2 Market Outlook
Posted by Renae Colbert on 1st Jul 2026
Market Update · July 2026
As we close out FY26, we want to give our customers a clear, honest picture of what's happening across global herb and spice sourcing, ocean freight, and the broader Australian business environment — and what we're doing about all of it.
— Renae & Chris Colbert, The Herbal Connection
New Season Harvests: A Mixed Picture
Several of the crops we rely on are under real pressure heading into the second half of the year. Here is where things stand.
Our commitment: if a specific SKU is affected by harvest pressure, you will hear from us first. We will not quietly substitute or short-ship without telling you.
Ocean Freight: Peak Season Has Arrived Early
Container availability on the China to Australia East Coast trade lane is under real pressure right now. We are in the traditional peak shipping season and space is tight — vessels on key services are running near full capacity, and some services have blank sailings scheduled through the coming weeks.
Freight costs are moving upward, and peak season surcharges are being applied by most major carriers from 1 July. This is on top of the ongoing situation that has kept many carriers routing around the Cape of Good Hope rather than through the Red Sea, which has added both time and cost to most Asia-Australia lanes over the past year.
We are factoring all of this into our purchase order timing and will communicate directly if a specific product's arrival is affected by freight delays. If you are planning a significant order for Q3 or Q4, we recommend placing it sooner rather than later.
The Australian Business Environment: What to Expect
We know our customers are operating in a tough environment right now, and we want to be transparent about the broader picture.
Food and grocery prices in Australia have risen significantly over the past few years, and inflation across transport, energy, and wages continues to run above longer-term averages. These pressures flow through every link of the supply chain — from growers and processors, to freight and logistics, to businesses like ours and like yours.
We expect continued cost movement from Australian-based growers and local supply chain partners through H2 2026 and into 2027 as the whole market works to find a sustainable balance between costs and margins. When we need to make pricing adjustments, we will communicate them clearly, in advance, and with a plain explanation of what's driving the change.
What We're Doing to Support You
Bulk box pack pricing — rolling out in July 2026
We have been mapping our full carton range across the website and July is when it goes live. Clear, transparent pricing for the carton sizes you actually order — no need to call through for a quote. All standard and non-standard box pack sizes included.
Wholesale tier pricing stays in place
Our discount structure is under regular review to make sure growing your order volume continues to make commercial sense for your business.
Early communication on price and supply changes
We will not surprise you. If something is moving — a harvest, a freight cost, a supplier change — you will hear from us first.
Strategic stock holding on tight categories
We are actively managing inventory depth on categories under harvest and freight pressure so that our supply chain challenges don't automatically become yours.
Customer survey — coming later this month
A short survey is landing in wholesale customer inboxes later in July. Five minutes of your input goes directly into how we plan stock, pricing, and new product ranges for the rest of 2026 and into 2027.
"Thank you for your continued partnership. If you'd like to talk through your ordering for H2 — whether that's locking in volume ahead of a tight harvest, understanding a price change, or planning forward for Q3 and Q4 — reach out to the team directly."
sales@herbalconnection.com.au | (07) 5451 8780
Monday to Thursday · 7am–3pm AEST
Warmly,
Renae & Chris Colbert
The Herbal Connection — Certified Organic Herbs, Spices & Botanicals