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Market Highlights: Supply Chain Delays and Planning in 2025

Posted by Renae Colbert on 5th Aug 2025

Extended Transit Times from Europe and India

Global shipping disruptions have significantly extended transit times for our key imports like tea, botanical herbs, and spices. Shipments from Europe and India – where most of our stock originates – now face months-long delays. In normal times, sea freight from Europe to Australia might take around 6–8 weeks in transit, but today the total lead time can be 4–5 months from the moment we place an order until the goods arrive. Industry reports confirm that “long lead times of 4-5 months remain standard” due to constrained raw material supply and ongoing shipping bottlenecks. This delay affects all shipments of commodities like tea, herbs, and spices. Unfortunately, expediting via air is not a practical solution – air freight for such bulky, lower-value goods is prohibitively expensive, often 5–10 times the cost of sea freight, so we must rely on ocean shipping.

Several factors contribute to these extended timelines: limited vessel availability, port congestion, and routing challenges. For instance, carriers have reduced direct services and sometimes route containers through multiple ports, adding to voyage length. Typical transit times of 35–60 days (or more) are now common, especially if a container is transshipped or consolidated en route. With Australia’s geographic isolation, we are literally at the end of the line – if a sailing is missed or delayed, there may not be another for weeks. In short, being so far from suppliers means we cannot get stock quickly once the supply chain is disrupted.

New Organic Certification Paperwork and Requirements

Another layer of delay comes from organic certification requirements. Organic products must be certified by approved bodies, and recent changes have tightened these rules. Exporters now must ensure all organic paperwork is in order before shipments leave the origin country, which can introduce new hold-ups. In many cases, each organic shipment needs a Transaction Certificate or similar documentation to prove its organic status, and any hiccup in this paperwork can prevent the container from sailing on time. Moreover, regulatory updates worldwide are raising the bar on organic compliance. 

Changes in organic certifying bodies have also caused disruptions. In India, several major organic certifiers lost their accreditation in recent years due to compliance failures. In late 2021 the Indian authority APEDA suspended or fined five organic certification agencies after EU regulators found issues (excess pesticide residues) in their certified exports. Exporters had to scramble to shift to other accredited certifiers and redo certificates, inevitably delaying shipments. This kind of shake-up means extra steps and checks for organic stock – every batch needs to be verified by a recognized certifier, and if the certifier changes or new certificates are required, the departure gets pushed back. In short, the organic status of our products must be rigorously documented at origin now, adding to lead times.

Necessity of Planning Months in Advance

Given these conditions, advanced planning is critical. We now place orders 4–5 months ahead of when we expect stock to be needed. This long horizon is necessary to account for production lead time, booking a vessel, the sea transit itself, and delays in ports or paperwork. For perspective, orders we confirmed in mid-2025 are scheduled to arrive around December – and some won’t reach Australia until early 2026. Essentially, our end-of-year inventory was largely ordered back in July or August. This is a dramatic change from just a few years ago when 2–3 month lead times were sufficient. Planning so far ahead is not just prudent – it’s the only way to ensure continuous supply under current circumstances. We have to forecast demand and commit to purchases months before the stock will be here, which carries its own risk (if our forecasts are off) but is preferable to running out of product.

Why such a squeeze on timelines? One reason is that shipping capacity to Australia is limited – carriers prioritize larger trade lanes, and there are only so many ships servicing Europe-to-Australia routes. If we miss a scheduled container loading, the next opportunity may be quite far out, compounding delays. Additionally, Australian importers are relatively few for these specialized organic commodities. This market structure means any disruption hits hard. When a smaller importer faces a delay or stockout, their customers don’t have many alternatives and often rush to us (the wholesaler) seeking supply. This surge in unexpected demand can drain our inventory faster than anticipated. We’ve witnessed this in the past 4 months – a few fellow importers had shipments stuck in transit, and their shortfall prompted a flood of orders to us, quickly exhausting stock that we thought was sufficient.

Impact on Stock Availability and Mitigation Efforts

Despite our best efforts, these challenges have led to stock shortages and outages in recent months – situations we normally would avoid. We proactively increased our safety stock and on-order quantities to buffer against delays, essentially holding more inventory to bridge the gaps. However, the unpredictability of the delays (and the knock-on effect of other importers’ woes) meant we still experienced some temporary product outages. Every link in the supply chain is stretched: origin suppliers need more time to prepare and certify shipments, freight lines take longer to deliver, and domestic demand spikes whenever there’s a hint of delay.

Moving freight by air to bypass ocean delays isn’t viable for us – air freight costs would make our teas and spices exorbitantly expensive, so we must ride out the sea freight timeline. This reinforces why meticulous planning is key. We coordinate closely with suppliers to lock in orders and shipping bookings well in advance. We also maintain constant communication with our freight forwarders about vessel schedules, aiming to get early notice of any slippage. Internally, we are reviewing demand forecasts and order cycles to adjust to this new normal of 4-5 month lead times. It’s a challenging environment, but by acknowledging these delays upfront, securing the necessary organic documentation early, and ordering months ahead, we strive to minimize the impact on our customers.

Ultimately, Australia’s distance and limited import options mean supply chain hiccups hit us harder and longer. The current situation – from maritime delays to extra organic compliance steps – underscores the importance of resilient planning. We will continue to adapt our procurement strategy so that our customers can count on stock availability, even as we navigate the reality that some shipments on the water now were ordered last summer, and some orders we place today won’t be here until next year.

Sources: Long lead times of 4–5 months for shipments (due to raw material and shipping disruptions)mkgfoods.co.uk; typical sea freight transit times from Europe ~30–50 days (can be longer with indirect routes)pivotfreight.au; new organic import certificate requirements (e.g. US mandate from March 2024)agriculture.gov.au; changes in organic certifiers (India, 5 agencies barred for compliance failures)krishijagran.comkrishijagran.com.

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